• Global power demand set to rise by more than half again by 2030
• Power sector’s CO2 emissions likely to rise by a quarter at the same time
• Using natural gas instead of coal for power generation could even reduce emissions compared to today’s levels
• Dispensing with coal-fired power generation would prevent emissions of more than EU’s total emissions
Global power demand is set to increase on average by nearly 3 percent per year over the current and next decade. Cumulatively, this moderate growth will cause overall power demand to rise by more than half of its current level between now and 2030. If new power plants are added as foreseeable, associated CO2 emissions are likely to increase by a quarter or 3,500 megatons. These are the findings of a recently published study by Siemens and Professor Horst Wildemann of the Technical University of Munich. “If coal-fired power plants were replaced on a wide scale with gas-fueled power plants by 2030, CO2 emissions in the power sector would even drop by five percent compared to today’s levels,” says Professor Wildemann. “Of course, it would be illusionary to replace all coal-fired power plants with gas-fueled units – but the potentials identified are really impressive,” Wildemann continues. The global CO2 emissions that could be eliminated per year by ending power generation from coal are the equivalent of the entire CO2 emissions of all 28 countries of the European Union.
“In our study we examined the local situations and different needs in various regions of the world,” notes Michael Süß, member of the Management Board of Siemens AG and CEO of Siemens’ Energy Sector, when presenting the study at the World Energy Congress. “Of course, besides sustainability and the need for dependable power supply, economy is always important – there would be no point in closing down new coal-fired power plants ahead of schedule just to cut CO2 emissions. But it is equally apparent that all-out expansion of renewable energy sources alone does not automatically improve the climate balance, as rising CO2 emissions in Germany impressively highlight. On the other hand, shutting down aging coal-fired power plants not only reduces emissions significantly, but can also make economic sense, as has been proven in the United States. In our study, we analyzed various scenarios while keeping an eye on a three-way balance between sustainability, reliability and economy,” Süß explained.
The study shows that – despite extreme differences in regional conditions – all countries fit fairly comfortably into one of five archetypes in the energy context. In countries with only slowly rising power demand there are on the one hand the “green pioneers” who bank heavily on renewables, and on the other the “traditionalists” with only a low proportion of ecofriendly power. Among the countries with rapidly increasing demand for electrical power there are the “energy-hungry” nations that have already achieved a high level of electrification, and the “next-wave electrifiers” where there are still major gaps in power supply to all households. The fifth group identified is the “oil export maximizers” that are characterized by the challenge to enhance efficiency in the field of oil and gas exploration.
As regional highlights of these analyses, the study found for example that Europe could save some EUR 45 billion in its drive to expand power generation from renewable resources by 2030 if those sources were tapped at the best locations – while achieving the same ratio of renewables in the power mix. In this scenario, new solar power plants would be installed mainly in Europe’s sunbelt in the South, while wind power plants would be built in the windy northern regions of Europe. In the United States, the USD 80 billion losses per year due to indirect costs of power failures could be saved if the quality of the grid were improved. And in China it would be possible - despite the doubling of power consumption - to freeze CO2 emissions at today’s level if renewable energy sources were exploited at full-scale. However, this would also require nearly double the investment volume. By contrast, emissions could be cut back by almost as much, but at no extra cost, if one third of China’s coal-fired power plants were replaced by modern gas-fired units by 2030.
All interim analyses of the results yielded by the local studies of Europe, Russia, the United States, China, the Middle East and South Korea are available for download here, as are the findings of the full study: www.siemens.com/wec
In its global energy study, Siemens has examined regional situations with allowance for predicted future developments in various markets. The aim was to determine what approaches are best suited from national and global economic perspectives for creating reliable and sustainable energy systems with high efficiency but still at affordable power prices.
Siemens’ Energy Sector is the world’s leading supplier of a complete spectrum of products, services and solutions for power generation in thermal power plants and using renewables, power transmission in grids and for the extraction, processing and transport of oil and gas. In fiscal year 2012 (ended September 30), the Energy Sector had revenues of EUR 27.5 billion and received new orders totaling approximately EUR 26.9 billion, posting a profit of more than EUR 2.2 billion. On September 30, 2012, the Energy Sector had a workforce of more than 86,000. Further information is available at: www.siemens.de/energy.